MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
conference road team from Game Ten
out that allows more than 10 PPG
versus an opponent with revenge off
a win if the opponent was favored by
35 or less points in its last game
Play Against:
TEXAS TECH
ATS W-L Record Since 1980 :16-2(89%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Since 1983, the Tennessee Volunteers are 24-1 SU versus Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games.
SAYONARA
The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams
in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially
holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these ‘value
laden’ criteria:
a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season fi nale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent’s win percentage is .444 < this season
By combining all the factors above our ‘see ya later’ sad sacks are a nifty
36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ‘Sayonara’ teams on this
season’s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.
By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure
we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making
sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we
ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifi es this week.
While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season,
this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s
editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making
statement to that effect
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Fla Atlantic over ARKANSAS ST by 7
Both the Owls and the Red Wolves trail Sun Belt Conference co-leaders
Troy and La Lafayette by one game for the top spot, thus making this a
pivotal game for post-season honors. And in gauging the current form
of both squads we feel the wrong team is favored. After a 0-4 start,
FAU has the look of a runaway freight train, winning each of its last
four games. Meanwhile, ASU has dropped 4 of its last 5 contests after
opening the campaign with wins in 3 of its fi rst 4 games. The history
book comes to our support, too, with the Owls 6-2 ATS as single-digit
conference road dogs while the felines are just 1-6 ATS when playing
with extra zzz’s. Howie Longname’s troops are dialed in to landing a
bowl bid and become bowl-eligible with a win here today. Beware of
the Owl.
5* BEST BET
TCU over Air Force by 31
Better get the rescue crews on standby because this looks like a fullfl
edged aerial disaster waiting to happen. The Fort Worth Frogs are
majorly pissed about letting Utah off the hook in a game where TCU
won everywhere but the scoreboard, eventually losing 13-10 in the
closing minutes at Salt Lake City. The Horned Ones have had two weeks
to stew over what might have been and will bring their ‘A’ game today
against what fi gures to be an exhausted Air Force squad. The Flyboys
left it all on the fi eld last Saturday against BYU, trading blows with
the superior Cougars until they faded in the fourth quarter. Now the
Falcons must close out the season on the road where they’ll bear more
than a slight resemblance to the cattle waiting to be slaughtered at the
Forth Worth stockyards. The Force made the big mistake of upsetting
TCU in’07 as 8.5-point home dogs and our database informs us that
the Falcons are an awful 1-17 ATS when they lose SU off a SUATS loss
versus an avenging foe. And make no mistake about it, Air Force WILL
lose this game. The Froggies have held 10 of 11 foes to season low – or
2nd low – yards this year and the nation’s best rush defense (just 39
YPG) fi gures to stymie the Flyboys’ only form of attack. TCU has cashed
in 4 of the 5 most recent series meetings and own an identical 4-1 ATS
record in Last Home Games. Look for Gary Patterson’s Frogs to reach
the 10-win plateau for the third time in the last four years with a notso-
Christian destruction of the fading jet jockeys
4 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech by 17
It’s put up or shut up time for the new kids on the BCS block and Texas
Tech couldn’t have picked a worse venue to defend its #2 ranking.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops leads his Sooners onto the
fi eld at Memorial Stadium this Saturday, it will mark his 61st home
game with OU. Stoops’ SU record in the previous 60 games? Try 58-
2 – including 23 wins in a row – plus he’s a perfect 4-0 SU this year
in lined games at Norman, winning by an average of just under 25
PPG. A Sooner victory today puts OU, Texas and Texas Tech in a 3-way
tie for the Big 12 South Division title… with the tiebreaker going to
the team ranked highest in BCS standings. There are numbers aplenty
surrounding this matchup and the majority of them suggest hitching a
ride with the Sooner Schooner. For openers, Texas Tech is an anemic 2-
7 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points, 2-5 ATS away with
rest and Red Raider head coach Mike Leach – who served as Stoops’
offensive coordinator for one year before bolting to Lubbock in 2000
– stands just 1-6 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points off
a bye week. Meanwhile, Stoopsie is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when his team
owns a win percentage of .900 or greater versus an undefeated foe off
a win of 28 or more points. He’s also 6-1 ATS at home with conference
revenge, a situation that comes into play thanks to TTRR’s 34-27 defeat
of OU as 7.5-point home dogs in ’07. The icing on the cake comes in
the form of this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 that instructs
us to fade the Red Raiders. And even though Tech features a pair of
potential Heisman fi nalists (QB Harrell and WR Crabtree) compared
to just one for Oklahoma (QB Bradford), we think Stoops will spoil
Leach’s perfect season with a convincing double-digit smackdown.
3 BEST BET
Ole Miss over LSU by 6
You’d be hard pressed to fi nd a better coaching job in college football
this year than the one turned in by Houston Nutt at Ole Miss. In three
seasons under Nutt’s predecessor, Ed Orgeron, the Rebels struggled to
a pathetic 10-25 SU overall record while winning just THREE TIMES in
24 SEC skirmishes. This season alone, Nutt has steered Ole Miss to a
6-4 record (four losses by a combined 19 points) while bagging a trio
of conference wins. And if you think Mississippi will be intimidated
by going on the road to Baton Rouge, think again: the Rebels lost
by a mere 4 points at #1 Alabama just three weeks after conquering
#4 Florida at The Swamp! Yes, LSU did rise from the dead last week
against Troy, erasing an incredible 31-3 third quarter defi cit to score
a 40-31 win – the greatest comeback in school history. Ah, but such
events often exact a stiff price the following week and that’s not what
the Tigers need against an Ole Miss squad that’s cashed 6 of the last 7
series get-togethers (6-0 ATS L6 at Death Valley). The Bayou Bengals
are also hamstrung by a seemingly unthinkable 1-15 ATS record
in their last 16 home games against SEC opposition. The only thing
missing here is value (Rebs were 19.5-point HDs versus Tigers LY) but
the way Nutt has his team rolling, we may not need the points. Money
burners like LSU with little focus or desire (2-7 ATS TY) make for poor
favorites… and that’s what you’ll be if you try to coax a pointspread
win out of the Tigers today.
Thursday, November 20th
GA TECH over Miami Fla by 6
If this were the mid 80’s or the early 90’s and GT boss Paul Johnson was
relying on his triple-option rushing attack to put points on the board
against THOSE lightning-fast Hurricane defenses, he would’ve dropped
that offensive scheme in a hurry. Those ferocious stop units would have
been all over his ground game (251 YPG in ‘08) before he got to his 2nd
option (just ask Nebraska or Oklahoma). However, this is 2008 and though
the Baby Canes are defi nitely getting better every week, slowing down
the nation’s 8th-ranked rushing offense may be a bit much to ask in front
of a raucous Thursday night Bobby Dodd Stadium crowd. And speaking
of Thursday road teams, they’ve been a money-burning 1-9 SU and 3-7
ATS off a Thursday home game of late. The Hurricanes control their ACC
Championship Game destiny should they win their last two games but their
youth could betray them here. With Miami head coach Randy Shannon
0-5 ATS when owning a .666 or greater win percentage versus ACC foes
and Johnson 15-5 ATS with rest (11-2 as chalk), we’ll look for the hosts’
running game to operate with more precision and eventually wear down
the resurgent visitors
Friday, November 21st
TOLEDO over Miami Ohio by 3
With both teams branded by the shame of identical 2-8 season marks, we’ll
be surprised if either squad shows any interest or intensity in this snoozer
(mercifully, this game will not be televised on ESPN). Toledo certainly has
more incentive: head coach Tom Amstutz will abdicate his throne at season’s
end but can we really trust ‘Tommy Large’ in a lame duck chalk role? With
the Rockets closing out the campaign at home again next week, we’d rather
try Tom as a home dog against Bowling Green when the fi nal curtain falls
on his 8-year head coaching run. UT does own a money-making 13-2 ATS
record as chalk off a double-digit defeat but the RedHawks counter with a
recent 3-0 SUATS series dominance. All things considered, we’ll opt to do our
impression of Bradbury Robinson back in 1906 and ‘pass’.
Buffalo over BOWLING GREEN by 1
Unlike the MAC road kill mentioned above, we wouldn’t mind checking
out this tussle between East Division leading Buffalo and 2nd place
Bowling Green. Head coach Turner Gill has worked wonders with the Bulls
in just three seasons, improving from a 2-10 SU start in 2006 to winning
the team’s 4th game in a row in ’08 last week to become bowl eligible.
Tonight’s trip to Bowling Green marks the fi nal stop on Buffalo’s 2008
‘Revenge Tour’ and the Bison have rolled to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark against
their earlier opponents in that role (UB has also cashed six in a row as a
road dog). Yes, the Bee Gees can qualify for postseason play with a victory
here but with Buffalo coach Gill being the answer to this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2, we’d rather go running with the Bulls than take fl ight
with the Falcons.
SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
Fresno State limped its way to bowl eligibility with a win over New Mexico
State last week but Pat Hill’s current team looks more like shelter mutts
than the best-in-show Bulldogs that bullied their way to a 9-4 campaign in
’07. One of those wins was a merciless 30-0 thrashing of San Jose State so
you know Spartan coach Dick Tomey will have his team breathing fi re for
this rematch – if he can get his boys to shake off back-to-back losses where
they were outscored 62-17. SJSU already owns the six wins needed to go
bowling but may need a seventh win to seal the deal following that pair of
ugly defeats. With the series visitor posting a weak 1-5 ATS mark lately and
San Jose State proudly displaying a 3-0 SUATS record in its most recent Last
Home Game scenarios, we’ll look for a Spartan effort from the home team
tonight.
Saturday, November 22nd
TEMPLE over E Michigan by 11
Two more teams that will be cleaning out their lockers at the end of Game
Twelve. At least Temple still seems to have a little fi ght left: the Owls shook
off the previous week’s heartbreaking loss to Navy to rally from 18 points
down against Kent State but the Flashes nailed a late fi eld goal to steal
the win. Results like that have made Temple the tough luck poster boys for
2008. Five of the Owls’ seven losses have come by a combined total of just 18
points and three of those defeats came on the game’s fi nal play! Meanwhile,
the nose-diving Eagles have gone 3-18 SU in their last 21 road games and
have been whipped by 3 TDs in their last two outings this season. A win here
for Temple and next week at home against Akron would give the Owls 5
wins, their most since 1990. In what will likely be EMU coach Jeff Genyk’s last
fl ight away from Ypsilanti with his Eagles, expect the Owls to rule the roost
– but not by a big enough margin to ring the register.
RUTGERS over Army by 11
It could be time for the FDA to stage a surprise inspection to see if Rutgers
head coach Greg Schiano has been spiking his team’s pre-game meals. Five
weeks ago, the red-faced Knights were just 1-5 on the season and looked as
lost as a bunch of New Jersey National Guardsmen in downtown Baghdad.
But lo and behold, QB Mike Teel rediscovered his deft passing touch and
Rutgers went on a 4-game tear, culminated by last week’s jaw-dropping 49-
16 destruction of South Florida, a team previously ranked in the Top Ten that
also had the advantage of a bye week to prepare for the Knights’ arrival in
Tampa. Off that shocking upset and a revenger against Louisville on deck
for next week, Rutgers should bag win No. 6 here against Army, a team that
Schiano has crushed in three prior meetings by an average score of 40-9.
However, the problem here is the hefty price. Army has also rebounded from
a slow start to hold three of its last fi ve opponents to season low yards and
the Cadets have cashed in all three tries this year as dogs of more than 10
points. When it comes to today’s color choice for body armor, we’ll go with
basic black over red and follow the infantry into battle.
Illinois over NORTHWESTERN by 6
Northwestern’s 5th-year senior QB C.J. Bacher had been MIA over the past
few weeks but he returned in time to fi re a pair of 3rd-quarter TD passes
against Michigan that turned a 14-7 defi cit into a 21-14 victory, leading the
Purple Cats to their fi rst 8-win season since 2000. Meanwhile, things went
from bad to worse for the Illini. A 30-20 home loss to Ohio State marked
Illinois’ third loss in its last four games and if Ron Zook’s squad doesn’t declaw
the Wildcats here they will become the fi rst team since 1955 Michigan
to fi nish with a losing record after playing in the Rose Bowl the previous year
(gee, funny how the words ‘Michigan’ and ‘losing’ are suddenly becoming
synonymous). Yes, it’s ‘Bowl Eligible or Bust’ for the Fighting Illini in their Big
10 season-ender but with fi ve ‘In The Stats’ wins in their previous six games
– added to Northwestern’s 0-5 ITS mark in the Wildcats’ last fi ve contests
– we wouldn’t be surprised to see Juice Williams squeeze out a big victory
(and a cover) today at windy Ryan Field.
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh by 4
While the preseason pundits expected this season’s Big East race to be
decided by South Florida and West Virginia, these two party-crashers are
set to slug it out for the loop’s top spot instead. Currently side-by-side in
the new BCS rankings (UC #19, Pitt #20), the Bearcats and Panthers have
exhibited similar amounts of grit and determination this season while
separating themselves from other conference pretenders. Cincinnati’s
Brian Kelly is right on course to equal or surpass last year’s 10-3 record but
he’ll have to overcome some mighty strong Pittsburgh numbers to do so.
Amazingly, Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt has won and covered in all three slugfests
with the Queen City crew and his squad upset the Bearcats, 24-17, as 9.5-
point home dogs in ’07. Even better, the dog is 8-2 ATS in Panthers games
this year and the Black Cats are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four appearances
as pups since their season-ending upset win over WVU as 28.5-point dogs
last year. Cincinnati has compiled a strong 9-3 ATS mark as chalk when
playing with conference revenge but this Pittsburgh bunch just looks too
hot to lay any points against. Should be a great game to watch but we’ll
keep the wallet closed for now.
Boston College over WAKE FOREST by 3
The best thing about this matchup for Wake Forest is the location. The
maddeningly inconsistent Deacons have dropped three straight road games
both SU and ATS so they’ll love being back in Winston-Salem where they’re
5-0 ATS lately as conference home chalk of 7 points or less. The Deacs have
also cashed 4 of the last 5 series meetings and the Bostonians should take
note that teams playing off an upset of Florida State are just 1-7 ATS versus
an opponent off a SU loss. But as enticing as all that may be, the Eagles
show up today as quite a rare animal – an underdog owning both the
better offense AND defense. The Everly Brothers may have thought their
“bird dog was on the wrong trail” but this particular hybrid of fowl and
canine is very much to our liking. Deacons sink to 1-5 ATS in their last six
shots at the Big Board.
PURDUE over Indiana by 16
It all comes down to this… one fi nal chance to get it right and send Joe
Tiller out a winner in his fi nal game at Ross-Ade Stadium – against the
Boilermakers’ most despised foe, Indiana. That scenario is certainly not a
given. Woeful Purdue has visited the winner’s circle just ONCE in its last
8 games, the Boilers are a poor 1-6 SU in Big 10 play and Tiller’s usually
prolifi c offense has sputtered badly, being held to single digits in 4 of
their 11 games. However, the train gang fi nds itself as the avenger in
this year’s meeting after IU’s win in ’07 snapped a 5-game winning skein
by Purdue. Even better, the Boilers catch a depleted Hoosiers squad
that’s only 9-57-2 ATS when losing SU this decade (4-28-1 ATS versus a
foe off a loss). Tiller is 16-3 ATS at home against a foe off back-to-back
losses, including 7-0 when his team is also off consecutive defeats, and
we look for this band of underachieving Boilermakers to summon up a
big effort to send Joe out in style. A SU win here would close the book
on a 12-year, 87-62 run for Tiller; let’s hope he gets both the win AND
the cover.
OHIO ST over Michigan by 14
We’ll never know for sure who’s responsible for our country’s current
fi nancial crisis but with a little digging we could probably round up the
names of the Maize-and-Blue brainiacs responsible for chasing Lloyd Carr
out of town before breaking the bank to bring in Rich Rodriguez as his
replacement. And what did UM get for its new head coach’s astronomical
salary plus a share of the $4 million contract buyout from West Virginia?
How about the FIRST 8-LOSS TEAM EVER in Michigan history? Folks, we’re
talkin’ 129 years here, all the way back to when every man in America
wore a hat. But as Bob Dylan so eloquently stated, “ When you think that
you’ve lost everything, you fi nd out you can always lose a little more.”
That sums up this weekend perfectly for Michigan fans: just a week after
their team established the benchmark for school gridiron futility, they now
have to close out this miserable season by watching Rodriguez get his butt
kicked up between their ears by the very man he was hired to beat – Jim
Tressel of Ohio State. Michigan’s disastrous campaign has removed any
hint of drama from what is usually a blood battle for the Big 10 crown and
a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes can still get there but they’ll need a
win here (no problem) coupled with a Penn State loss (possible problem)
to reach Pasadena. Today’s spread is the biggest in series history; the most
points the Wolves have taken before was +17 in 1996 and they won that
game, 13-9. It’s true that neither team has won 5 in a row in this series
since before the Great Depression (1927) but if you’ve been following
the stock market lately, you know we’ve got a pretty good ‘economic
downturn’ of our own going on right now – which means Tressel has a
good shot to win his 5th straight against Michigan and boost his career
series record to 7-1. But as bad as the Wolverines are, they still pack a 9-2
ATS log as underdogs of 6 or more points and will look at this showdown
as their ‘bowl game’ for 2008. We keep pretty close tabs on the Buckeyes
and we honestly can’t trust their somewhat anemic offense laying this
kind of number in an annual bloodbath. Take it if you play it. After all, this
is still a rivalry game, isn’t it?
VA TECH over Duke by 10
The Hokies have watched a potentially great year slide to a merely
respectable one after losing 3 of their last 4 games to land at 6-4. The
problems are many: an offense that’s scored more than 27 points only ONCE
in the entire season, a defense that’s a few players shy of intimidating and
special teams play – the foundation of Beamer Ball – that’s clearly been
lacking. Not so surprisingly, Boss Beamer’s ATS numbers are beginning to sag
somewhat. He’s 0-3 as chalk of more than 3 points in ’08 and has covered just
5 out of 13 tries as a double-digit conference favorite off a SU loss. Despite
Duke’s savage 31-7 beating at Clemson last Saturday, the Blue Devils can
still become bowl eligible with wins in their fi nal two games against the
Hokies and Tar Heels. We personally don’t see that happening but Duke
does qualify as a ‘LEAN ON ME’ underdog play (see issue 8) and that’s a good
enough recommendation for us to give Cutcliffe’s team a sideways glance.
Hey… no guts, no glory, right?
Florida St over MARYLAND by 1
This series has followed a distinct pattern over the past four seasons… FSU
wins at home by 8 points while Maryland holds serve at home with a 3-
point win. Guess whose turn it is this time? Maryland backs up the choice
with some great numbers: the Terps are 13-4 ATS as ACC home dogs of 7 or
fewer points and they’ve won 4 games SU as dogs this year – for the second
straight season. Plus, last week’s thrilling win over North Carolina marked
Maryland’s 6th win over a Top 25 ranked team (4-0 this year) for a school
record. The Seminoles aren’t quite so lucky in the ATS department. They’re
3-9 as conference favorites of 8 points or less, 3-8 as road favorites versus
conference opponents with revenge and 2-6 before taking on Florida. And
they’re not the dominant FSU squads of old, trailing by double digits in FIVE
consecutive games, somehow winning the previous four before their luck
ran out against Boston College. However, most of our arguments in favor
of Maryland hinge on the Terps being the dog in the matchup. With the
line currently bouncing around near ‘pick-em’, we’ll have to see where the
number settles before going any further.
N CAROLINA over NC State by 8
Fear The Turtle. Butch Davis and company didn’t heed that advice and now
the Tar Heels need help to claim the ACC Coastal Division crown. They’ll
certainly be interested observers when Georgia Tech tangles with Miami this
Thursday – a Hurricane loss might add a little pep to their step for today’s
bitter in-state rivalry. But even with that added incentive, the line on this
matchup appears to be a tad high for our liking, especially since the Heels
are just 1-4 ATS recently as double-digit conference home favorites. Their
1-4 ATS record after Maryland and 2-6 ATS mark in Last Home Games also
doesn’t bode well for Chapel Hill backers. With State needing wins in its
fi nal two games to become bowl eligible, Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien will
ask talented QB Russell Wilson to keep this one close. North Carolina may
avenge last year’s 31-27 setback at Raleigh but Baby Blue’s 3-7 ATS mark
as ACC favorites with revenge doesn’t guarantee that we’ll grab the cash.
Looks like a take.
KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 3
Back when the word ‘Sears’ was accompanied by ‘Roebuck’, the retail giant
used a three-tier system to market their merchandise, labeling items as
‘good, better or best’. Welcome to Manhattan, Kansas, where the operative
words are ‘bad, worse, worst’. Not only is today’s contest the last game for
lame duck head coach Ron Prince, K-State is another favorite ‘leaking oil’
(losing the game stats), plus the double-digit favorite Wildcats actually lost
to Iowa State last year as 15-point road chalk. Even with an upset of KSU,
the Cyclones will merely equal last year’s 3-9 mark of futility – and if Kansas
State is ready to ditch Prince after just three seasons, second-year Iowa State
head coach Chizik now has a more realistic view of where the bar of success
has been set in the Big 12 North. However, this week’s WE GOTTA GET OUT
OF THIS PLACE article on page 2 clearly puts K-State in the crosshairs here, so
we’ll have to side with the Cyclones against the overpriced Wildcats.
Tennessee over VANDERBILT by 3
Knoxville is not a fun place to be these days. Tennessee fans are still shuffl ing
along in zombie-like shock over the rapid demise of the Volunteer program
and the dismissal of head coach Phillip Fulmer. Ol’ Phil gave the fans a
19-8 record to cheer about in the past two year but a poor start this year
coupled with the fact that UT had gone just 4-11 SU against the SEC’s Big
Four (Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU) lately, including 0-3 this season,
convinced the administration it was time for a change. But announcing
Fulmer’s termination midway through the campaign backfi red – the Vols
have gone 0-3 SU and ATS in their past three outings, the most recent an
almost unthinkable home loss to 3-6 Wyoming as 26-point favorites. Even
worse, the bumbling Tennessee offense scored a grand total of just 25 points
in that embarrassing trio of defeats. Lost amid all the drama playing out at
UT is the news that Vanderbilt’s Commodores won last week at Kentucky
to FINALLY become bowl eligible for the fi rst time since 1982. Such grand
achievements usually result in letdowns the following week and with Fulmer
a solid 13-5 ATS off a SU favorite loss (10-2 against SEC foes), we think Vandy
will drop to 0-4 SUATS in Last Home Games after today. If you need further
ammunition to go with the Big Orange, look no further than our INCREDIBLE
STAT on page 3. Wrong team favored.
Arkansas over MISSISSIPPI ST by 6
Forget about striking out in a brothel with a fi stful of fi fties; we don’t think
Croom and company could score in a women’s prison with a handful of
pardons! The Bulldogs’ 7-point effort against Alabama marked the 4th time
this season that Sly’ s boys have been held to single digits and it won’t get
any easier this week against an Arkansas squad that is still playing hard for
Bobby Petrino. The Hogs held high-powered Tulsa to just 23 points in early
November and shouldn’t have any problem shutting down an impotent
Bulldog squad that’s just playing out the string. The ‘pick ‘em’ line certainly
lends value to this play: the visitors have beaten the hosts 12 of the last 13
times SU and have been favored in 10 of those meetings. With Missy State
0-9 SU of late after its annual rumble with ‘Bama – and with Petrino needing
to win his fi nal two games to become bowl eligible – there’s only one way to
go in this dead-even affair. You know what to do.
Akron over OHIO U by 1
The Zips battled Buffalo for four solid hours last Saturday in a valiant attempt
to win their fi nal game at the historic Rubber Bowl, their home for the past
68 years. But after four overtimes, visiting Buffalo slugged out a 43-40 win
to move into the MAC East division lead. However, the Zips aren’t completely
out of the running if Buffalo loses on Friday night but they must still knock
off the Bobcats to retain any hopes of reaching the conference title game.
We think they’re out of the running for an ATS win here since we have a rule
against playing overtime losers… especially as road favorites. Can’t work up
an appetite for a Bobcat bet, though, when Ohio U is a feeble 5-11 ATS with
rest. There are better opportunities elsewhere…
Colorado St over WYOMING by 6
Big implications for both teams but entirely different is nature. For the visiting
Rams, a win today would put them in the running for a possible bowl berth
in coach Steve Fairchild’s fi rst season – and also avenge a humiliating 24-0
loss suffered here in their last visit in 2006. You can forget about Wyoming’s
mind-altering upset of Tennesse at Knoxville… the Vols were so fl at for that
game even Michigan could have won. Nope, a better measuring stick for the
Cowboys’ true worth would be a sickly 4-24-1 SU record compiled in their
last 29 conference games. Even with a win, Wyoming will suffer its fourth
straight non-winning season under coach Joe Glenn and today’s seasonender
at Laramie will likely serve as Glenn’s swan song after a 6-year stint.
Just do us a favor and don’t hire Greg Robinson, okay?
RICE over Marshall by 10
Had we taken the “If you can’t say something good about someone, don’t
say anything” adage literally, this writeup would have turned up blank. Well,
maybe not completely… wins here and next week against Houston would give
the Owls 9 victories this season, a number not equaled in their last decade.
Hmmm… and Rice is a surprising 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in ’08, fueled by an offense
that’s exploded for 46.5 PPG in its last 6 games. The Owls also own one of CUSA’s
top pass-and-catch tandems is QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard
and they’ve forced a whopping 25 turnovers this season. Hey, where have
these guys been hiding? Meanwhile, the Blundering Herd is going nowhere
fast, outyarded by the opposition in 9 straight games and beset by problems
that coach Mark Snyder insists are “self-infl icted”. A hungry home team with a
dangerous offense against a potentially demoralized visitor? Bring it on.
NOTRE DAME over Syracuse by 22
By the time you read this it will be late Tuesday afternoon and the Irish will be
STILL be working on recovering on-side kicks. If it wasn’t for a dropped pass
at the 11-yard line, the Naval Academy might have rallied from a 20-point
defi cit with under 2 minutes to play to stun Notre Dame after recovering not
one, but TWO onside kicks. The good news for the Irish in today’s contest
is that its opponent must score in order to kick off and that won’t likely
be the case as lowly Syracuse invades the Golden Dome. Orange fans back
in the Empire State have been singing “The sun will come up tomorrow…
bet your bottom dollar” since head coach Greg Robinson was fi nally served
with his walking papers this week (9-36 SU record). But don’t feel too bad
for Mr. Robinson: he’ll receive $1.1 million next season for the fi nal season
on his contract. Hmmm… 9 wins in 4 seasons – that works out to around
$500,000 per win… not bad! How does Coach Lawrence sound to you? With
the Orange 1-12 SU and 4-13 ATS in the last 4 games of the season under
Robbie, there’s no reason to believe they’ll come to play this week. Notre
Dame’s 6-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites of less than 24 points versus a less
than .500 opponent seals the deal. Lay it, play it, say it – Go Irish!
Washington over WASH ST by 6
It might actually be time to relinquish Division 1-A status when you’re installed
as a 7-point home dog to a WINLESS team. That’s right, the 0-10 Huskies from
Washington actually show up at Pullman laying a TD to the hapless home
team… and why not? After last week’s 31-0 blanking at ASU, the Cougars
have now been kept off the scoreboard in 3 of their last 4 contests. However,
that doesn’t mean we’re ready to jump on the visitors’ bandwagon in this
battle for what should be renamed the “Crapple Cup”. Lame-duck HC Coach
Ty Willingham and his band of pups haven’t won a stat battle all year and in
the only time they were favored this season they were beaten outright by
Stanford. We’ll be watching reruns of Cloris Leachman on ‘Dancing with the
Stars’ before tuning in to this one but we will grab the bushel basket of points
being offered. THIS JUST IN: winless road teams from Game Ten out are just
7-47 SU… and let’s not forget that the Cougars did hold Okie State to seasonlow
yardage this year. You can do it – it’s as easy as bobbing for apples
TULSA over Tulane by 34
Hold on – we think Houston just scored AGAIN. Our 5* PLAYBOOK newsletter
college play delivered like a 5* should as the Cougars annihilated the Golden
Hurricane, 70-35. Suddenly, after an 8-0 start, Tulsa has lost 2 straight road
games and you can bet they’ll be in an ornery mood in this Last Home Game.
Meanwhile the 2-8 Green Wave are coming off an embarrassing loss of their
own, a 17-point home setback to lowly UAB, and Tulane’s 30-PPG defense
should provide little resistance to a Tulsa squad that won’t hesitate to run it up
big. The Greenies’ 1-6 ATS mark as conference dogs of 14 or more points just
adds more devastation to a Hurricane poised to reach catastrophic proportions.
The hosts have their ‘eye’ on this one – no need for us to look further
PENN ST over Michigan St by 17
Any discussion of the Penn State program begins and ends with Joe Paterno,
the coaching icon who has had his job at Happy Valley for a record 43 years.
Paterno’s contract runs out this season but talk of his future has been put on
hold until the conclusion of the current campaign – or at least until he does
something about an ailing hip that’s kept him off the sidelines and in the
press box for most of 2008. “I’m probably going to have to get something
done with this thing as soon as the Michigan State game is over,” Paterno
said, indicating that his complete focus remains on the Spartans since a
Lions’ win clinches a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Green-and-White may fi nd
Beaver Stadium less than hospitable considering they’ve been camped out in
the state of Michigan for the last six weeks and the ATS archives offer little
support for Mark Dantonio’s squad. MSU is just 1-5 ATS with rest, 2-6 ATS
when playing its Last Road Game and the Spartans have lost the stat wars
in four of their last six games. Joe Pa currently stands 4-1 ATS at home in
this series, 5-1 ATS versus a rested foe and 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS defending
his home turf off back-to-back ATS losses. Screw Joe The Plumber… we’re
backing Joe The Coach in what could be his fi nal home appearance in
front of the Penn State faithful. And should Paterno close the book on his
unrivaled career following the Nittany Lions’ bowl game, we have just one
question to ask Joe Shades: who’s gonna play you in the movie?
VIRGINIA over Clemson by 3
The battle lines are clearly drawn in this ACC showdown. The winner bags
win No. 6 and joins the ever-growing group of postseason wannabes. A quick
check of the numbers tells us the Wahoos are the more likely candidate to
achieve ‘bowlness’. They’re an outstanding 18-3-2 ATS off BB ATS losses and
head coach Al Groh owns a superb 14-7 SU and 15-4 ATS record as a home
dog, including 7-0 ATS off a SUATS loss. Clemmie, though, has failed to bring
home the pointspread bacon as an ACC road favorite off back-to-back losses,
posting a miserable 7-16-1 mark versus the number. We’ll have to back Groh
at home against interim Clemson coach Swinney playing a pressure-packed
contest on the conference road. Cavs git’r done.
CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 3
The Big Game is one of just a few meaningful ‘rivalry games’ on this week’s
slate. And as we’ve come to learn there have been many cliffhangers in this
series including the most memorable of all – the 1982 hasty Stanford band
appearance. Today’s game is meaningful for both squads. For 6-4 Cal the
onus will be on avenging last year’s 20-13 loss as a 13-point road favorite.
For the 5-6 Cardinal this is a ‘must-win’ last chance opportunity to gain bowl
eligibility. Stanford knows how to accomplish the task on this fi eld having
gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS their last nine visits to Berkeley. The Cardinal is also
5-0 ATS in games after tackling USC. With the Bears in the process of pulling
their famous folding act (2-8 SU and ATS in their fi nal three games of the
season the past 3 years), the points look attractive.
La Tech over NEW MEXICO ST by 6
Well, the Techsters couldn’t cut it last week as double-digit home chalk so
we wonder how they’ll do here as road favorites? A quick scan of their stat
sheet shows that they had held their previous 4 foes to season low – or 2nd
low yards – until last week’s win-no-cover over Utah State. And they’ll be
facing a team playing its 11th straight game with no rest this season. Our
problem with the Bulldogs, however, is the fact that they are a paltry 3-17-1
ATS in games after putting 35 or more points on the scoreboard. This could
likely be the fi nal curtain for Aggies’ head coach Hal Mumme, rumored to be
on his way out. If this becomes a ‘win one for the Gipper’ game then NMSU
improves to 5-1 ATS in Last Home Games. If they want Hal’s ass out of Las
Cruces, it won’t matter. With that we’ll make like a vintage Mumme team
from the past and… pass.
Boise St over NEVADA by 1
With Fresno State currently in the tank, Nevada represents the fi nal obstacle
between the Broncos and their 2nd unbeaten regular season under thirdyear
head coach Chris Petersen. In order to accomplish the feat they will need
to get past a team that has been dominate at the line of scrimmage on both
sides of the ball this season. Chris Ault, one of our favorite coaches, has fl own
under the radar this season with a team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in
rushing offense (325 ORYPG) and No. 2 in rushing defense (64 DRYPG). The
Wolf Pack attack is keyed by 6’ 5” QB Colin Kaepernick who is also a top-fl ight
MLB pitching prospect. Kaepernick leads all FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards,
gaining 1,017 yards on 8.3 Yards Per Carry this season. Boise will certainly feel
the pressure from ‘the noose’ as they attempt to stay unbeaten in this tough
environment. To their credit, the Broncos are 7-1 ATS in this series, including
3-0 on this fi eld. With Nevada averaging more than 39 PPG at home under
Kaepernick, look for the Pack to improve to 15-2 ATS in the 2nd of back-toback
home games as Boise barely escapes by the skin of their teeth.
East Carolina over UAB by 3
Former pointspread king Skip Holtz is suddenly looking like pro golfer John
Daly – out of money and looking for love in all the wrong places. The main
culprit is an offense that’s playing like a gang of rum-soaked buccaneers,
staggering to an average of just 15 PPG in their previous three outings. Even
so, we were all set to buck the hapless Blazers thanks to this stat: UAB has gone
0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in its fi nal six games over the past two years. However,
somebody’s breathed some new life into these dragons and they’ve gone 2-2
SU and ATS in the fi rst four of 08’s fi nal half-dozen. Even more tempting is the
fact the Blazers own a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS mark as conference home dogs
when tackling a greater than .500 foe. With the Pirates already bowl-eligible
and playing like they’re lost at sea, we think UAB will grab the treasure by
sending out its seniors with an ATS victory today.
HOUSTON over Utep by 14
Houston’s big win over Tulsa last week (a featured 5* play atop the pages
of the PLAYBOOK) vaults the Cougars into a three-way tie for the top spot
in the Conference USA West Division standings. The good news for Houie is
that they control their own destiny. They will become Division champs with a
win today and next week against Rice. Already bowl eligible under 1st-year
head coach Kevin Sumlin, Houston takes the fi eld with a 4-1 ATS mark in
Last Home Games. The biggest hurdle they face, though, is that UTEP needs
one win in its fi nal two games to also gain bowl eligibility. After a rough
0-3 start, the Miners have come on strong, winnng 5 of their last 8 games.
El Paso is 10-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, too. Can’t see the Cougars
playing to the level they did last week. It’s simply too much to ask.
UTAH over Byu by 7
The Holy War resumes in Salt Lake City and the setting is enormous as
undefeated Utah looks to possibly claim a BCS bowl berth with a win against
the Mormons. If revenge has a say – and it often times does – the Utes will
be primed to avenge a pair of heart-breaking losses suffered the last two
years in this series. Last season BYU QB Max Hall converted on a 4th and 18
from his own 12-yard line. Four plays later the Cougars scored for a 17-10
win. Two years ago Cougar QB John Beck scrambled and tossed a TD with 3.2
seconds remaining for 33-31 win, thus breaking Utah’s back both times. The
series favorite has struggled, going 3-13 ATS. On the fl ip side, though, the
series host has had a reversal of fortune of late, going 4-0 ATS the last four
meetings – that after being 0-11 ATS the previous eleven gatherings. Utah
has orchestrated its own magical fi nishes this season with four wins coming
by 3 or less points, including a dramatic comeback victory over TCU on this
fi eld just sixteen days ago. Here we go again.
MINNESOTA over Iowa by 3
The fi nal game at the Metrodome for the Gophers kicks off Saturday evening.
Next year Minnesota will move to the TCF Bank Stadium, a 50,300 seat oncampus
‘horseshoe’ style stadium. In the process, the Gophers and Hawkeyes
will be battling for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, a award that has been in
existence since 1935. Iowa enters with wins in 4 of its last 5 contests, despite
having been outgained in each of the last four. Hence, they become a road
favorite that is ‘leaking oil’. Meanwhile, Minny looks to put an end to a 3-game
losing streak as they prepare to continue on to the bowling circuit. Given the
fact that bowl teams are 23-19 ATS as dogs in their Last Home Game, we look
for a big effort by the Golden boys in this Metrodome sendoff.
Oregon St over ARIZONA by 1
It’s sure nice to be able to control your own destiny. And when the reward
is a trip to the Rose Bowl it’s something you don’t want to let out of your
grasp. By winning out today and next week against Oregon, the Beavers
would return to Pasadena for their fi rst appearance in the Rose Bowl since
1965 when they lost to Michigan, 35-7. OSU enters on a major winning roll
having gone 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight games. They are also 8-1 SU and
ATS the last nine games in this series, having been ‘pick’ or favored all nine
times. The potential spoilers from Arizona are just 2-12 ATS in Last Home
Games and 7-22-1 ATS as conference home favorites of 3 or more points.
With Zona just 8-34 SU against .700 or greater opposition this decade, we’ll
grab the points with this ‘Puttin’ on the Stats’ live dog.
West Virginia over LOUISVILLE by 10
As the King once sang, “Kentucky rain keeps pouring down”. And not in
a good way for Louisville’s Steve Kragthorpe following last Friday’s loss to
Cincinnati. After dominating the Big East under Bobby Petrino’s watch, the
5-5 Cardinals are only above pathetic Syracuse in the conference standings.
To make matters worse for Kragthorpe, they’re just 4-3 SU at Papa John’s
Stadium this season and the home faithful are running out of patience with
their 2nd-year HC. The Cards need to win one of their fi nal two games to go
bowling but they probably won’t get it done against the Hillbillies, a team
that still has a shot at bagging the conference title. West Virginia has held
its last two opponents – Connecticut and Cincinnati – to season low yardage,
plus they’re an eye-popping 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as road favorites facing
a foe off a SU loss since 1993. With Louisville just 1-5 ATS as a home dog off
a loss of 7 or more points, it looks like Kragthorpe will have to set his sights
on Piscataway the following week to avoid a losing season. Oh, that cold
Kentucky rain!
MEMPHIS over C Florida by 4
Another case of the have-nots versus the wannabes in this Conference
USA matchup. The host Tigers need one more win to become bowl eligible
while the visitors already know they’ll be spending the postseason in
Orlando – not a bad place to enjoy the holidays but certainly not what
UCF coach George O’Leary had in mind coming off an 11-4 bowl season
in 2007. There’s not much data to support either side. The series host can
boast a 3-0 SUATS mark of late but Tommy West’s awful 2-14-1 ATS log as a
single-digit favorite quickly puts us back on the fence. The Golden Knights
did stop an 8-game In The Stats losing streak with last week’s upset of
Marshall but we’re not about to go on a crusade with the 3-7 Knights just
yet. Pass for now.
Unlv over SAN DIEGO ST by 19
The end can’t come soon enough for the woeful Aztecs. Even a miraculous
win here would leave SDSU with a 2-10 record, one of its worst seasons
ever, and probably the last for third-year head coach Chuck Long. With a
recent 5-1 ATS series edge (3-0 at home), the majority of our trends support
the Aztecs – but other angles and current form do not. UNLV must win this
matchup to reach magical win No. 6 and fortunately for the Rebels they
have the best of our ‘Sayonara’ SMART BOX to back them up tonight. Yes,
we know Vegas is a money-burning 2-16-1 ATS as chalk of 3 or more points
but when the sagacious square says to jump in, we usually just roll up our
sleeves and do it.
HAWAII over Idaho by 24
We’ve fi nally fi gured out why a downtrodden program like Idaho fi ghts so
hard to stay affi liated with the WAC: once every two years the Vandals get to
board a jet that fl ies straight to paradise when they take on the Warriors in
Honolulu. Hey, 2 wins this season and a trip to the 50th state to close out the
year? Not a bad deal for the Tater Heads. However, they have a snowball’s
chance of beating Hawaii here. Idaho has lost 4 in a row both SU and ATS
in the series, the Vandals are 0-4 ATS in Last Road Games and they’re a sad
1-7 ATS lately as conference dogs of more than 21 points. But don’t view
this inferior resume as a ‘buy sign’ on the hosts. The Warriors are a not-somenacing
6-13 ATS in conference games when playing with rest, including a
1-5 mark at Aloha Stadium. Still, you’ve got to respect Hawaii’s game effort
after stumbling to a 1-3 start without former coach June Rodriguez, err Jones,
patrolling the sidelines. Fact is the 5-5 Warriors can return to postseason play
with a win over Idaho today or lifeless Washington State next week. Since
Hawaii will be facing the pressure of “just win, baby” and Idaho won’t want
to interrupt its sunny vacation any longer than necessary, let’s call this a
sharp number and leave it somewhere over the rainbow.
LA Monroe over FLA INT’L by 1
The Golden Panthers kept their faint bowl hopes alive thanks to an upset win
over Arkie State last week. Technically they will need to win 2 of their fi nal
3 games to become bowl-eligible. Realistically they will likely need to win
all 3 games. Don’t look for that to happen. Not from a team that allows 100
YPG more than it gains. The reason they are favored today is that Monroe
coughs up 114 YPG more than it manufactures. The Warhawks were waxed,
59-0, last week at Ole Miss. The good news, though, is that they are 4-0 ATS
in games after being blanked. They also happen to be an eye-opening 16-3
ATS as road dogs of less than 14 points off a loss. Given the fact that FIU has
NEVER been favored in this series, look for Monroe to absorb any kind of
shock the Panthers may be entertaining.
MID TENN ST over N Texas by 14
Despite knocking off Maryland in Week Two of the season, a disappointing
4-6 record by the Blue Raiders likely means they will be home once again
for the holidays this season. One thing is for certain today, though, and it’s
the fact they struggle in games against the lowly Eagles. Sure they beat UNT
each of the last two seasons but prior to those wins they were 0-5 SU and
ATS in this series. On the fl ip side, the Eagles are 15-5 ATS against losing
teams off a win, including 7-1 ATS away. With MTSU snapping a 6-game ITS
(In The Stats) losing skid when they edged Western Kentucky, 313-281, in
their win last week, we have no interest whatsoever in this piece of chalk.
Take it or leave it.
TROY over La Lafayette by 10
Battle of league leaders with the winner in the pole position to grab
conference honors next week. The Ragin’ Cajuns bring the nation’s 3rd
ranked rush offense into the contest, pounding it on the ground for 284
RYPG. Their Achilles heel is the defense, one that allows 429 YPG. Today marks
the 7th road outing for La La, a team that could be tiring out. The defending
champion Trojans are one of only ten FBS teams to have outgained all – or all
but one – of their opponents this season. They are also 4-0 SU and ATS when
.400 or greater and playing off a loss in conference games. On a home fi eld
where they stand 66-11-1 SU, we envision Troy as a repeat champ.
Sunday, November 23rd
S FLORIDA over Connecticut by 1
How the mighty have fallen. After going 23-8 SU behind QB Mat Grothe the
last two-plus seasons, the Bulls have suddenly become sterile. That’s what
happens when you lose 4 of your last 5 games, with the only victory coming
over lowly Syracuse. The cause for the downfall is simple. Grothe tossed 3 INTs
in his fi rst 7 games and 8 in his last 3 contests. To make matters worse, USF is
0-5 ATS at home after allowing 28 or more points. They enter the weekend
tied with Louisville and Syracuse with just one conference win apiece. Yes,
they have revenge from a 22-15 loss at UConn last season but they are just
1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in revenge games this campaign. Look for the sled dogs
to improve to 8-0 ATS against winning teams that are off a double-digit loss
here this evening. Grab the points with the hard-trying Huskies.
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